Dear Ian, this is the most powerful and brilliant article about European policy and the Ukraine war anyone has written this year and indeed beyond that. An extraordinary tour de force. Thank you!
Not mentioned here, but also a valid point of discussion is Europe's utter hypocrisy vis-a-vis Russia and Israel. No sanctions are being applied to Israel, and the EU recently voted against any changes to the Europe-Israel Trade relationship. And this despite Israel's leadership being indicted for genocide and being an aggressor on multiple fronts against both Lebanon and Iran.
The problem is there is absolutely bugger all anyone can do about it. As Ian mentioned, the EU's leadership are appointed, not elected. We have no say--none, nada--in the policies the EU pursues.
It's a shitshow, and until the whole sad facade is burned to the ground the peoples of Europe will be made to pay the price for the abject failures of our political class.
1) I've long despaired of there being any policy change on the European side under the current leadership of Von der Leyen with Merz in charge in Berlin, Macron in charge in Paris and Starmer in charge in London.
2) Kaja Kallas is totally witless and the kind who earn blondes their intellectual reputation.
With genuine respect, if Kallas were bald and breathed out her remarks through a bassoon, she'd still be considered lo-fi by anyone who possesses a genuine sense of reality. As Ian Proud points out here, she finds it relatively easy to create a comment whose contents have no resemblance to affairs here on Earth. Which is why she works out so well as EU vice president.
A well-written analysis. A further point is that Europe's "anti-diplomacy" is not merely a failure of negotiation. It has become a mechanism for avoiding strategic accountability. By refusing talks, European leaders preserve the illusion that no settlement is possible except total Russian defeat. But the longer the war continues without that outcome, the more diplomacy itself becomes politically dangerous because any eventual negotiation will expose the gap between public rhetoric and battlefield reality. Thus, the likely result is a battlefield-shaped outcome where Russian territorial gains harden into divided lines and Europe refuses formal recognition while gradually adapting to a frozen or semi-frozen peace. In that sense, Europe's refusal to negotiate will produce the very outcome it claims to oppose: a stronger Russian position, a weaker Ukraine and a settlement reached on worse terms than were available earlier.
Many excellent points in your article Ian . If only the same could be published in the DT or other mainstream news outlets . It might help the scales fall from the eyes of their sadly ignorant readership and just maybe people would begin speaking out . Alas it aint going to happen .
The last time Putin met Xi, it's been reported that Xi asked "what shall we do about the EU"; and Putin replied "Let it cook".
While that probably misses some linguistic nuance, this irresistibly reminds me of three of the great 16th century unifiers of Japan and their respective answers, when in power, to the riddle "what should you do with a songbird that refuses to sing?"
Oda Nobunaga, the first of them, said: "If the cuckoo will not sing: kill it".
Hideyoshi Toyotomi's answer was: "If the cuckoo will not sing: make it sing".
The most famously successful of them, and thus the last, was Tokugawa Ieyasu, who answered: "If the cuckoo will not sing: wait for it to sing."
Time arguably was on Russia's side even before the Strait of Hormuz insanity.
Dear Mr. Proud, Thank you so much for this analysis of European policy. Of course you are right in saying that "the anti-diplomats in charge do not (know the answers to these rhetorical questions) or, if they do, are too focussed on clinging on to power prestige and status to admit it.". This is the psychological side of it, the "sunken cost fallacy". In my opinion, there is another factor to be considered: it is the deep crisis of our capitalist system which is dependent on permanent expansion and does't have any space to further expand anymore. Why? Because of the shift towards multipolarity, whre you can't just conquer any country to steal its ressources anymore. This is where the fiscal crisis, the economic crisis, the political crisis all come from. As a result they see war as the only possible way out for the western "anti-diplomats" you are describing here so brilliantly. And yes, we need regime change in our countries, but I am afraid we won't be able to achive it through elections - we are not offered any acceptable alternatives to the ruling "anti-politicians". Things may start to move as soon as the war in Ukraine is finally lost and our system begins to crumble.
"I have no doubt that both British and Americans will do their best to paralyze and destroy the Germany's industry and economy, as these countries, with their existing overproduction, are already forced to look for new markets."
-Georg Schumann, German politician, resistance fighter against the Nazi regime, tortured and killed by Gestapo on January 11, 1945.
***
"The Marshall Plan… is not a philanthropic enterprise… It is based on our views of the requirements of American security"
First, the US made sure euroslaves have no energy to power their industry by destroying the Nordstream pipeline, and now.. they will sell them their LNG and weapons x6 the price..
Excellent analysis. Although you ruined my day telling me Kallas is in her job till 2029. We are witnessing the slow suicide of Europe and it is painful.
Chances are increasingly likely that Russia will not tolerate the ongoing strikes deep into her territory facilitated by NATO. Putin is under pressure to be more assertive. Baltics may be the trigger. Then all hell breaks loose.
That's a devastating takedown of the EU/UK politicians , coming as it does from a professional diplomat who had a ringside seat in Moscow while all this was building up. It leads on to the question that has puzzled me since early 2022.
It was obvious in early 2022 that this was a lost war. It was obvious then that the sanctions would damage the European economy severely. If it wasn't obvious to the EU/UK politicians in February of that year, it was obvious by March/April: by that time the Russians had wrong-footed us militarily and the sanctions hadn't led to the expected quick kill.
Yet those politicians ploughed on. In fact they've been doubling down ever since. Why?
Kallas is definitely not a diplomat, but certainly isn't a politician. The most recent high profile obvious non-diplomat at a similar level was Nuland...who clearly was an employee of a 3-letter agency in Langley. And Baerbock, the spectacularly inarticulate German foreign minister, who clearly reported to the same address, not the German eldctorate. And who even said she didnt care what was good for them - blaant enough, or do we all still need a hint?
Kallas is surely at the very least an asset of said agency. Similar to Nuland she is saying and doing things that have zero basis in the best interests of the populace she is supposedly representing. Because...she doesn't work for them in the first place.
Kallas is a selectee, not a politician. And will be selected again, by those who pull the strings of power. Because for them, she's doing great job: Europe is in chaos, impoverished, crippled, without allies. And have you looked at European "Defence" share indices since the Ukraine proxy war began? What's not to like about her "achievements", if you are Langley, or the bigwigs that fund the Atlantic Council and own or control these companies?
Although Russiaphobia is pretty much endemic in the USA, the Democratic Party suffers from this malady to a much greater degree than do the Republicans. After all, the Democrats 'know' (in their fever dream fantasy world) that Putin was behind the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election!
The goal is to keep this war going until a Democrat takes office as president in January 2029, at which point the USA can drop any pretense of working a negotiated settlement and join the Europeans in ramping up the kinetic war against Moscow.
The question being.....can Europe survive that long without collapsing economically?
Nicely stated. Yet I fear that these Europeans are simply US vassals and that the US is not so blithely ignorant nor so hands off, and that it in fact demands the Europeans play this role in some kind of good cop bad cop routine. It would not be possible without US weapons and intelligence. Further I suspect that those who managed to move the politicians like marionettes during Covaids and make them all spontaneously robotically say build-back-better are to my belief happy with the war and slaughter, for whatever nefarious reasons. Or is this the first war when such types were not funding and profiting from both sides?
Dear Ian, this is the most powerful and brilliant article about European policy and the Ukraine war anyone has written this year and indeed beyond that. An extraordinary tour de force. Thank you!
Please read to better understand and predict Trump
https://www.amerika.org/politics/trump-an-anti-dark-organization-martyr/
Not mentioned here, but also a valid point of discussion is Europe's utter hypocrisy vis-a-vis Russia and Israel. No sanctions are being applied to Israel, and the EU recently voted against any changes to the Europe-Israel Trade relationship. And this despite Israel's leadership being indicted for genocide and being an aggressor on multiple fronts against both Lebanon and Iran.
The problem is there is absolutely bugger all anyone can do about it. As Ian mentioned, the EU's leadership are appointed, not elected. We have no say--none, nada--in the policies the EU pursues.
It's a shitshow, and until the whole sad facade is burned to the ground the peoples of Europe will be made to pay the price for the abject failures of our political class.
I loathe these people!
1) I've long despaired of there being any policy change on the European side under the current leadership of Von der Leyen with Merz in charge in Berlin, Macron in charge in Paris and Starmer in charge in London.
2) Kaja Kallas is totally witless and the kind who earn blondes their intellectual reputation.
With genuine respect, if Kallas were bald and breathed out her remarks through a bassoon, she'd still be considered lo-fi by anyone who possesses a genuine sense of reality. As Ian Proud points out here, she finds it relatively easy to create a comment whose contents have no resemblance to affairs here on Earth. Which is why she works out so well as EU vice president.
Agree absolutely. Dolly Parton is testament to what an intelligent blonde can sound like and puts von der Liar and Callous Kallas in the shade.
A well-written analysis. A further point is that Europe's "anti-diplomacy" is not merely a failure of negotiation. It has become a mechanism for avoiding strategic accountability. By refusing talks, European leaders preserve the illusion that no settlement is possible except total Russian defeat. But the longer the war continues without that outcome, the more diplomacy itself becomes politically dangerous because any eventual negotiation will expose the gap between public rhetoric and battlefield reality. Thus, the likely result is a battlefield-shaped outcome where Russian territorial gains harden into divided lines and Europe refuses formal recognition while gradually adapting to a frozen or semi-frozen peace. In that sense, Europe's refusal to negotiate will produce the very outcome it claims to oppose: a stronger Russian position, a weaker Ukraine and a settlement reached on worse terms than were available earlier.
Many excellent points in your article Ian . If only the same could be published in the DT or other mainstream news outlets . It might help the scales fall from the eyes of their sadly ignorant readership and just maybe people would begin speaking out . Alas it aint going to happen .
Excellent analysis! But why does nobody mention that Ukraine’s borders of 1991 were (except for the Crimea) created by Hitler and Stalin?
The last time Putin met Xi, it's been reported that Xi asked "what shall we do about the EU"; and Putin replied "Let it cook".
While that probably misses some linguistic nuance, this irresistibly reminds me of three of the great 16th century unifiers of Japan and their respective answers, when in power, to the riddle "what should you do with a songbird that refuses to sing?"
Oda Nobunaga, the first of them, said: "If the cuckoo will not sing: kill it".
Hideyoshi Toyotomi's answer was: "If the cuckoo will not sing: make it sing".
The most famously successful of them, and thus the last, was Tokugawa Ieyasu, who answered: "If the cuckoo will not sing: wait for it to sing."
Time arguably was on Russia's side even before the Strait of Hormuz insanity.
Dear Mr. Proud, Thank you so much for this analysis of European policy. Of course you are right in saying that "the anti-diplomats in charge do not (know the answers to these rhetorical questions) or, if they do, are too focussed on clinging on to power prestige and status to admit it.". This is the psychological side of it, the "sunken cost fallacy". In my opinion, there is another factor to be considered: it is the deep crisis of our capitalist system which is dependent on permanent expansion and does't have any space to further expand anymore. Why? Because of the shift towards multipolarity, whre you can't just conquer any country to steal its ressources anymore. This is where the fiscal crisis, the economic crisis, the political crisis all come from. As a result they see war as the only possible way out for the western "anti-diplomats" you are describing here so brilliantly. And yes, we need regime change in our countries, but I am afraid we won't be able to achive it through elections - we are not offered any acceptable alternatives to the ruling "anti-politicians". Things may start to move as soon as the war in Ukraine is finally lost and our system begins to crumble.
"I have no doubt that both British and Americans will do their best to paralyze and destroy the Germany's industry and economy, as these countries, with their existing overproduction, are already forced to look for new markets."
-Georg Schumann, German politician, resistance fighter against the Nazi regime, tortured and killed by Gestapo on January 11, 1945.
***
"The Marshall Plan… is not a philanthropic enterprise… It is based on our views of the requirements of American security"
-Allen Dulles, CIA director, 1949
***
How The US Destroyed Europe (The Marshall plan):
youtube.com/watch?v=-Kvqe2iY0aU
First, the US made sure euroslaves have no energy to power their industry by destroying the Nordstream pipeline, and now.. they will sell them their LNG and weapons x6 the price..
youtube.com/watch?v=lpf6ZeABP1I&t=1334s
***
5% of GDP for daddy NATO aka Uncle Scam! "Protection Racket" at its finest..
Excellent analysis. Although you ruined my day telling me Kallas is in her job till 2029. We are witnessing the slow suicide of Europe and it is painful.
Chances are increasingly likely that Russia will not tolerate the ongoing strikes deep into her territory facilitated by NATO. Putin is under pressure to be more assertive. Baltics may be the trigger. Then all hell breaks loose.
That's a devastating takedown of the EU/UK politicians , coming as it does from a professional diplomat who had a ringside seat in Moscow while all this was building up. It leads on to the question that has puzzled me since early 2022.
It was obvious in early 2022 that this was a lost war. It was obvious then that the sanctions would damage the European economy severely. If it wasn't obvious to the EU/UK politicians in February of that year, it was obvious by March/April: by that time the Russians had wrong-footed us militarily and the sanctions hadn't led to the expected quick kill.
Yet those politicians ploughed on. In fact they've been doubling down ever since. Why?
Good question. Once the lemmings decide to migrate, it's hard to stop them running towards the cliff edge....
Kallas is definitely not a diplomat, but certainly isn't a politician. The most recent high profile obvious non-diplomat at a similar level was Nuland...who clearly was an employee of a 3-letter agency in Langley. And Baerbock, the spectacularly inarticulate German foreign minister, who clearly reported to the same address, not the German eldctorate. And who even said she didnt care what was good for them - blaant enough, or do we all still need a hint?
Kallas is surely at the very least an asset of said agency. Similar to Nuland she is saying and doing things that have zero basis in the best interests of the populace she is supposedly representing. Because...she doesn't work for them in the first place.
Kallas is a selectee, not a politician. And will be selected again, by those who pull the strings of power. Because for them, she's doing great job: Europe is in chaos, impoverished, crippled, without allies. And have you looked at European "Defence" share indices since the Ukraine proxy war began? What's not to like about her "achievements", if you are Langley, or the bigwigs that fund the Atlantic Council and own or control these companies?
Although Russiaphobia is pretty much endemic in the USA, the Democratic Party suffers from this malady to a much greater degree than do the Republicans. After all, the Democrats 'know' (in their fever dream fantasy world) that Putin was behind the defeat of Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election!
The goal is to keep this war going until a Democrat takes office as president in January 2029, at which point the USA can drop any pretense of working a negotiated settlement and join the Europeans in ramping up the kinetic war against Moscow.
The question being.....can Europe survive that long without collapsing economically?
Great article really o share the same views about this war without diplomacy Ukraine will loose everything
Nicely stated. Yet I fear that these Europeans are simply US vassals and that the US is not so blithely ignorant nor so hands off, and that it in fact demands the Europeans play this role in some kind of good cop bad cop routine. It would not be possible without US weapons and intelligence. Further I suspect that those who managed to move the politicians like marionettes during Covaids and make them all spontaneously robotically say build-back-better are to my belief happy with the war and slaughter, for whatever nefarious reasons. Or is this the first war when such types were not funding and profiting from both sides?