After my last video, I decided to do a clause by clause review of the so-called US peace plan for Ukraine with the European counter-proposal that has appeared in western newspapers. This was apparently drafted by the German, French and British National Security Advisers who joined the talks in Geneva.
If you look at both documents side by side, they appear remarkably similar. However, some big gaps exist, the largest being NATO membership for Ukraine. The European wording will be seen in Moscow as keeping the door open to future NATO membership for Ukraine while also allowing for the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine. This, I’m afraid, will be a massive red line for the Kremlin, and I can’t see that they will agree.
Other controversial pieces of text from the Europeans:
water down the commitment to Ukrine joinoing the EU;
hold the line of keeping Russia’s sovereign assets immobilised after the war has ended;
increases the cap on Ukraine’s military to 800,000 personnel, from 600,000 (althogh I frankly don’t thnk Ukraine can afford either number without massive inflows of financial aid from European States, which they can ill afford);
removes the specific commitment by Ukraine to elections after 100 days;
defers the issue of territory - which Zelensky has described as the most difficult issue - until after a peace deal is agreed;
removes the clause on amnesties. The amnesty issue appears as important to Russia and Ukraine for different reasons For Russia to avoid the much-called-for international war crimes tribunal, and for Ukraine, to enable corrupt figures around Zelensky to avoid imprisonment for massive embezzlement. However, I wasn’t sure reading the online version that I saw, whether the amnesty clause had been removed by accident.
While looking at the amnesty clause, I seem to have terminated my video recording early!
But to conclude, the European counter-proposal is helpful in that it engages with the US text as a starting point. Any final peace deal will look different to the versions we see today.
Yet, the European counter-proposal makes it almost impossible to Russia to get on board with peace, with NATO still very much on the table, and with the Europeans wanting to hold on to Russian afters after the fighting stops.
All that being said, US talks with Ukraine appear to have been positive so far. Right now, the emphasis is on Trump maintaining the focus and pressure on European leaders to get on board with compromises that will enable Putin to sue for peace, so that the fighting can end.
As of today, we still seem some way from that point.
I hope you find the video interesting.
