Excellent article, but there is a major problem to negotiations. Can Russia trust the western politicians and countries? If a president like Trump can just tear into peaces an agreement like he did against Iran in his first term. If the EU politicians openly boast themselves never having had intentions to stick to agreements, like the Minsk accords.
Europe is increasingly feeling the effects of the lack of a cheap and easily accessible source of energy. Unfortunately, it is too late for EU countries. Russia has already pivoted to Asia so the cheap energy will go there. Europe will reap what it has sown all these years...poverty, economic ruin and a political class made up of clowns whose ultimate role will be to administer the disaster that is looming on the horizon...
I reject the characterisation of Kaja Kallas and other unelected bureaucrats as "elite" - and all that flows from that - as being uniquely undeserving of the label.
Our ongoing conflict with Russia is just one of the many acts of idiotic self-harm they have inflicted on us because we have not prevented them from occupying positions of power they are utterly unqualified to hold.
The solution is not to urge better strategies and tactics (which I have no doubt your suggestions are) upon them, but to remove them. For the simple reason that the long train of their abuses, evincing a singular objective, is compelling testament to their complete lack of ability or intention to even consider, let alone adopt, better strategies and tactics.
As if »we«, the plebs, have any choice in the matter. This issue and the war and Propaganda narrative and use of spec. services like MI6, and law, it’s all controlled by the ruling class far above and beyond any control of ‘parliaments’ aka Kabuki theatres. That’s it. All those brainwashed ppl who believe what BBC tells them about democracy and the Mother of all parliaments, are doomed to support the current status quo
The macroeconomic figures don't even tell the whole story. I have visited family and friends in a provincial city in Russia over 14 times since 1992, most recently in 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2025. Travel restrictions in the last few years have been intensely annoying and expensive but do not affect the lives of ordinary Russians. From 2016 onwards I have noticed the effects being very positive. Boosting Russian agriculture and industry has been nothing but good for ordinary Russians. The shelves of supermarkets are now well-stocked with affordable high-quality Russian products. The streets and parks are cleaner today than 12 or more years ago, and generally there is a feeling of optimism. The attitude of many Russians today is that they do not particularly want the sanctions lifted! It's not a priority, and could even threaten to undermine the progress the country has been making towards self-sufficiency. They do want the war to end - but not with surrender or fudged compromise but full completion of the SMO and punishment of the banderites and their western political backers. The only opposition to Putin that I heard is from people who felt he is too cautious.
On a personal basis, I really want to see the international travel restrictions lifted - but that is something that affects foreigners far more than it affects Russians. I's not Russia that is my enemy. It is my own country's government.
Also, I recall having read that many times that during its time as a member of the G8, many decisions were taken by the G7 and Russia was simply informed after-the-fact. Who wants to be a part of such a group???
The Americans previously mentioned that as well. That is not something that is has any appeal at all to Russia. All of the current members of the G7 have debt levels in excess of 100% of their GDP. As you mentioned in the article, Russia’s current level is about 20% of its GDP. What indeed would be the reason n that Russia would even consider being in the G8?? BRICS is much more advantageous and as mentioned, the oil/energy that used to go to the EU now goes to India and China.
Thank you very much for that very insightful, and excellent article. Now if only UK and European leaders would get the message of their failures, and actually do what you suggest, and restore relations with Russia, things, over time, may well improve for us all.
I'm not holding my breath however, as the UK,EU, and NATO seem very much to be heading for a nuclear war end, such is their obliviousness to the idiocy of what they have done - but then it's not just what they've done, being as they are all following the will of the American Empire, it's the US's desire to use us here in the EU/UK to be the proxies for their empire plans, no doubt promising great things for the EU/UK, which will prove to be empty words, or mere scraps from their master's table.
The fact that the EU/UK seem so blind to their own idiocy, and so willing to seemingly take us into a war with Russia, which will no doubt have a nuclear counterpoint that will leave the EU/UK radioactive wastelands, seems to me to be that Washington insists on service as proxies from its vassal states.
What you propose is sensible, logical, and decently human ... when will these fools wake up to themselves? Hopefully before it is too late to stop war, and nuclear war as the end of us all.
Once again, Ian, thank you for another well researched and reasoned article. There are so many global threads involving Russia, the Middle East, China, the USA and the failure of the “international rules-based order - IRBO”, or the Western-Favoured IRBO, that it is virtually impossible to figure out what is actually happening. A dearth of vision from our political leaders coupled with copious levels of propaganda does not serve to build confidence and trust.
As a Canadian, I find myself trying to make sense of all of this in relation to PM Carney’s Davos speech. In particular: (a) his coalition-of-the-willing Middle Powers (MP) initiative and (b) his apparent resignation or frustration with the uselessness or ineffectiveness of the United Nations.
Of course I get the wisdom of economic diversification - in Canada’s case greater strategic protections against US economic cohesion.
Canada’s full throated support and entanglement with Europe however seems to be about more than trade diversification. Canada’s full buy-in to the EU’s warmongering against Russia, coupled with our relative inaction on the need to reform and strengthen the UN, leaves me wondering about the ultimate success of this MP’s initiative and, indeed, of any real independence from US dominance. So far I see the US a having achieved its goal of strengthening NATO by convincing Canada and others to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while cutting needed spending on public services. This is ultimately not strengthening democracy at home.
It is however the lack of real action in supporting the UN that I find most alarming. A multi polar world is a reality. As such it is difficult to see Carney’s MP’s initiative lasting outside of a UN framework. Again, so far I see economic security being sought in borrowing to support making bombs and bullets under military Keynesianism while China continues to invest in infrastructure, education, and climate change mitigation. All the while improving the economic security of its people.
From all of this it is hard to not see the warmongering of Europe, indeed, of the West, as really a struggle to deny multipolarity. The country most benefitting from all of this being the USA. I continue to hope that PM Carney has not bought into supporting an East vs West power struggle and that he is instead forced to tread very carefully with respect to relations with the USA. However, my fear is that his lamenting the failure of the IRBO indeed means the Western preferred order.
It's so shameful to be part of a country, a continent and a political system that has turned out to be a war-mongering fascist monstrosity. I grew up being told the western democratic post-war world was one of prosperity, the rule of law, free speech, democracy, freedom and benign capitalism. Turns out the western world is actually a nasty, aggressive cabal of stupid, greedy, power-hungry monsters where most of us don't matter and have got used to not actually caring. My late father would be stunned to see that we Brits, along with the EU and the USA, are the aggressors and the Reds (aka the Russians) and the Persians are the ones being attacked. Shameful.
The US and EU placed >20,000 sanctions on Russia. Remind me again about how many sanctions the UK and EU has placed on either the US or Israel for their wars of aggression against Iran.
Zero, as I recall.
You might conclude that the EU and UK are hypocrites, where there's a law for the golden billion and another for everyone else. Just like the ICJ only ever seems to prosecute brown people.
Excellent article, but there is a major problem to negotiations. Can Russia trust the western politicians and countries? If a president like Trump can just tear into peaces an agreement like he did against Iran in his first term. If the EU politicians openly boast themselves never having had intentions to stick to agreements, like the Minsk accords.
Europe is increasingly feeling the effects of the lack of a cheap and easily accessible source of energy. Unfortunately, it is too late for EU countries. Russia has already pivoted to Asia so the cheap energy will go there. Europe will reap what it has sown all these years...poverty, economic ruin and a political class made up of clowns whose ultimate role will be to administer the disaster that is looming on the horizon...
I reject the characterisation of Kaja Kallas and other unelected bureaucrats as "elite" - and all that flows from that - as being uniquely undeserving of the label.
Our ongoing conflict with Russia is just one of the many acts of idiotic self-harm they have inflicted on us because we have not prevented them from occupying positions of power they are utterly unqualified to hold.
The solution is not to urge better strategies and tactics (which I have no doubt your suggestions are) upon them, but to remove them. For the simple reason that the long train of their abuses, evincing a singular objective, is compelling testament to their complete lack of ability or intention to even consider, let alone adopt, better strategies and tactics.
As if »we«, the plebs, have any choice in the matter. This issue and the war and Propaganda narrative and use of spec. services like MI6, and law, it’s all controlled by the ruling class far above and beyond any control of ‘parliaments’ aka Kabuki theatres. That’s it. All those brainwashed ppl who believe what BBC tells them about democracy and the Mother of all parliaments, are doomed to support the current status quo
The macroeconomic figures don't even tell the whole story. I have visited family and friends in a provincial city in Russia over 14 times since 1992, most recently in 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2025. Travel restrictions in the last few years have been intensely annoying and expensive but do not affect the lives of ordinary Russians. From 2016 onwards I have noticed the effects being very positive. Boosting Russian agriculture and industry has been nothing but good for ordinary Russians. The shelves of supermarkets are now well-stocked with affordable high-quality Russian products. The streets and parks are cleaner today than 12 or more years ago, and generally there is a feeling of optimism. The attitude of many Russians today is that they do not particularly want the sanctions lifted! It's not a priority, and could even threaten to undermine the progress the country has been making towards self-sufficiency. They do want the war to end - but not with surrender or fudged compromise but full completion of the SMO and punishment of the banderites and their western political backers. The only opposition to Putin that I heard is from people who felt he is too cautious.
On a personal basis, I really want to see the international travel restrictions lifted - but that is something that affects foreigners far more than it affects Russians. I's not Russia that is my enemy. It is my own country's government.
There is no point at all in even mentioning the “G8”
Also, I recall having read that many times that during its time as a member of the G8, many decisions were taken by the G7 and Russia was simply informed after-the-fact. Who wants to be a part of such a group???
The Americans previously mentioned that as well. That is not something that is has any appeal at all to Russia. All of the current members of the G7 have debt levels in excess of 100% of their GDP. As you mentioned in the article, Russia’s current level is about 20% of its GDP. What indeed would be the reason n that Russia would even consider being in the G8?? BRICS is much more advantageous and as mentioned, the oil/energy that used to go to the EU now goes to India and China.
Thank you very much for that very insightful, and excellent article. Now if only UK and European leaders would get the message of their failures, and actually do what you suggest, and restore relations with Russia, things, over time, may well improve for us all.
I'm not holding my breath however, as the UK,EU, and NATO seem very much to be heading for a nuclear war end, such is their obliviousness to the idiocy of what they have done - but then it's not just what they've done, being as they are all following the will of the American Empire, it's the US's desire to use us here in the EU/UK to be the proxies for their empire plans, no doubt promising great things for the EU/UK, which will prove to be empty words, or mere scraps from their master's table.
The fact that the EU/UK seem so blind to their own idiocy, and so willing to seemingly take us into a war with Russia, which will no doubt have a nuclear counterpoint that will leave the EU/UK radioactive wastelands, seems to me to be that Washington insists on service as proxies from its vassal states.
What you propose is sensible, logical, and decently human ... when will these fools wake up to themselves? Hopefully before it is too late to stop war, and nuclear war as the end of us all.
Once again, Ian, thank you for another well researched and reasoned article. There are so many global threads involving Russia, the Middle East, China, the USA and the failure of the “international rules-based order - IRBO”, or the Western-Favoured IRBO, that it is virtually impossible to figure out what is actually happening. A dearth of vision from our political leaders coupled with copious levels of propaganda does not serve to build confidence and trust.
As a Canadian, I find myself trying to make sense of all of this in relation to PM Carney’s Davos speech. In particular: (a) his coalition-of-the-willing Middle Powers (MP) initiative and (b) his apparent resignation or frustration with the uselessness or ineffectiveness of the United Nations.
Of course I get the wisdom of economic diversification - in Canada’s case greater strategic protections against US economic cohesion.
Canada’s full throated support and entanglement with Europe however seems to be about more than trade diversification. Canada’s full buy-in to the EU’s warmongering against Russia, coupled with our relative inaction on the need to reform and strengthen the UN, leaves me wondering about the ultimate success of this MP’s initiative and, indeed, of any real independence from US dominance. So far I see the US a having achieved its goal of strengthening NATO by convincing Canada and others to increase military spending to 5% of GDP, while cutting needed spending on public services. This is ultimately not strengthening democracy at home.
It is however the lack of real action in supporting the UN that I find most alarming. A multi polar world is a reality. As such it is difficult to see Carney’s MP’s initiative lasting outside of a UN framework. Again, so far I see economic security being sought in borrowing to support making bombs and bullets under military Keynesianism while China continues to invest in infrastructure, education, and climate change mitigation. All the while improving the economic security of its people.
From all of this it is hard to not see the warmongering of Europe, indeed, of the West, as really a struggle to deny multipolarity. The country most benefitting from all of this being the USA. I continue to hope that PM Carney has not bought into supporting an East vs West power struggle and that he is instead forced to tread very carefully with respect to relations with the USA. However, my fear is that his lamenting the failure of the IRBO indeed means the Western preferred order.
Superb piece.
Excellent - whre are the arguments against this? I see none.
It's so shameful to be part of a country, a continent and a political system that has turned out to be a war-mongering fascist monstrosity. I grew up being told the western democratic post-war world was one of prosperity, the rule of law, free speech, democracy, freedom and benign capitalism. Turns out the western world is actually a nasty, aggressive cabal of stupid, greedy, power-hungry monsters where most of us don't matter and have got used to not actually caring. My late father would be stunned to see that we Brits, along with the EU and the USA, are the aggressors and the Reds (aka the Russians) and the Persians are the ones being attacked. Shameful.
The US and EU placed >20,000 sanctions on Russia. Remind me again about how many sanctions the UK and EU has placed on either the US or Israel for their wars of aggression against Iran.
Zero, as I recall.
You might conclude that the EU and UK are hypocrites, where there's a law for the golden billion and another for everyone else. Just like the ICJ only ever seems to prosecute brown people.
Or is that my imagination?
Ian, my understanding was that sanctions actually strengthened Putin's hand in bringing Russia's oligarchs under control. What's your view?