At the political level Europe suffers from a lack of intelligence. Badmouthing Nordstream I and II is a clear sign of utter stupidity. At the time these pipelines were highly praised because they were correctly seen as an excellent source for the long-term supply of the European countries with comparatively cheap energy. Prior to the Ukraine crisis the Russians had offered the Europeans long-term supply contracts at fixed low prices, which would have guaranteed European prosperity for decades to come. There is no doubt that a major or even the main reason for the creation of the Ukraine war by the Americans was the destruction of the pipelines. The US blew up the pipelines and forced he Europeans to buy US gas at colossal prices from the US knowing that this would destroy European industries - in particular the German ones. At the same time the US encouraged the major European industrial companies to move their operations to the US where "energy costs and taxation" (US slogan) were far more attractive. Were the Europeans (again, in particular the Germans) too stupid or cowardly (or both) to see this? The pipeline arrangement was a brilliant idea, which is now described by the fool Merz and other intellectual low-lives as a "serious mistake", because it made Europe dependent on Russia. In other words, they think that instead of dealing with the utterly reliable and trustworthy Russians it is preferable to deal with the utterly crooked and mendacious Americans and become dependent on their supply of gas, the price of which is at least six times higher than that of Russian gas. It seems that the political European leaders are on secondment from a lunatic asylum.
Looking back 20 years from now, historians will note how quickly the EU plummeted from its heyday in 2002 with the introduction of the Euro to the shambles it is now. Many reasons will be given for this collapse of course, Russia will be mentioned, Trump of course too.
However, the collapse of Europe is down to hubris, a once great economic community chose to go all in and become a competitor against the US. Unfortunately for Europe, they never foresaw the emergence of China as an economic superpower nor the re-emergence of Russia as both an economic and military superpower.
The central bankers of Europe who control the EU should have stuck to banking and business, not geopolitics. The EU is a collection of nations, not a nation state, the belief that this was not so is what destroyed the EU.
Banking and business, as almost everything else that matters, are not distinct from geopolitics... EU countries could have chosen continuation of being subject to the US, overall it did work well for both for 75 years. The issue is they FORESAW the emergence of China and that vassals would have to suffer for it, not the USA. But the USA were not the unipolar power for nothing and used all their powers, openly and covertly, to cut their natural resource ties with Russia and economic ties with China and devastate Europe economically before it could anything about it.
The EU mis-leaders have also followed the disastrous policy of economic hostility to China aka "de-risking", which also costs the citizens of Eu countries money, in higher costs of products and higher dependence on the US, which is clearly not in the economic interest of EU citizens either.
The mis-leaders were put where they are, given the US has a complete control of its European vassals internal politics landscape, to toe the US line and against citizens of the European countries. Asian vassals are next, just in case: https://www.bjreview.com/Opinion/Voice/202506/t20250609_800404199.html
Europe boxed itself in trying to wear a moral cape while playing a power game. Cutting off Russian gas was a signal, a statement. But signals don’t heat homes or keep factories running. The Nord Stream move now feels more like theater than strategy: banning a pipeline that’s already dead is just another way of pretending control in a game where Europe keeps folding its own cards.
Merz stepping in with a tougher line might look like a pivot, but Germany’s internal pressures are massive. You can't run an export economy on overpriced LNG while the public is watching bills spike and jobs drift away. If AfD continues rising, it's not becuase voters suddenly turned far-right; it’s because the mainstream has ignored their pain for too long.
Ukraine’s EU membership? Honestly, it's a powder keg: not just economically, but politically.
Brussels is in this weird limbo: either double down on an already unpopular war or open the door to a new member that could break the entire house of cards. Neither option is clean, and both are loaded with risk.
Bottom line? Right now, Europe’s playing a game it doesn’t seem ready to wn.
The Euro skeptics predicted the transfer of currency risk to sovereign risk when the Euro was first started. The structural tensions inherent in the EU and its irrational currency, funding, and policy arrangements were always going to be beyond the capabilities of the eurocrats to resolve. They're still wallowing in the delusion that there are no such tensions and that everything is just going to continue as it has been, forever, and that they will never personally have to pay the price of their various profligate insanities, aka policies.
The Ceausescu's once thought as they do.
"for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they have from the beginning of creation"
* the attitude of EU towards Russia is indeed disastrous
* fossil gas is no way too expensive, it is still to cheap
* the problem is not the supply with fossil fuels, but the consumption
* the gas EU is now buying in large scale from fascistic state USA plus Caliphate Qatar is called LFG (liquefied fossil gas), not "lng"
* indeed there will be no EU in a few years unless EU is willing to grow up and itself take care of its defense (without NATO), its energy market (get rid of fossil, reduce consumption), and its political system (stop pirating everything from USA, abolish capitalism instead)
The sooner the better - France or another member. Bring the whole rotten house down and do it before they get us into a war with Russia. EU + UK + NATO is a suicide cult. Putin was open to Russia joining NATO and even asked Clinton about it. Let Russia into EU before Ukraine then? Not part of the death cult plan.
Two, centrifugal forces at work. Economic decline - the rise of fascism, both inextricably connected to the crisis of capital. The parallels with the 1930s are unavoidable except, there is no force on the left that has an alternative to offer, socialism. The catalyst? US imperialism.
If they foresaw the emergence of China as you say, they would not be in the mess they're in. Had they seen beyond their perceived new economic might back in 2002 instead of looking down on China as they did, the EU would have reaped the rewards of following China into new markets.
Working as I did back then with the elite management of Airbus, albeit in the role of a business English instructor focused on the rather complicated task of uniform report writing, I was always struck by how racist these figures I dealt with were when it came to the Chinese. Also how racist they were to one another in the great European country. So from my experience I believe you're wrong. Back when they should have embraced China they didn't, they laughed at the country. Hubris, like I said.
Looks at Meloni in Italy, from a lion in opposition to a VDL cuddly toy in power. The AfD was founded by five neoliberal economists and funded by a Swiss-German oligarch (probably partially a front for bigger oligarch money). They want to defund the German welfare state and radically deregulate the whole economy, exactly the bankers' dreams. They are using "nationalism" as simply a front to get into power. The National Rally over the years have also been very substantially tamed.
This is the game that the oligarchs play, an endless stream of "alternative" candidates and parties who in reality are in their pockets. The EU will collapse, but not before the oligarch class have done everything they can to forestall that from happening and they have quite a few games left to play. Look at Britain and its "BREXIT" that through multiple Conservative leaders and now Starmer has been turned into a purely performative farce. Also, I didn't notice any reduction in UK immigration levels, they are actually way higher than pre-BREXIT.
Stop falling for the obvious bullshit, otherwise you will just be played. Ukraine will never be allowed into the EU in any form other than an utter vassal to be widely exploited, the exact form of that agreement that the Ukrainian president refused to sign in 2014.
The plan in Ukraine ever always only was for one or more european poodles to intervene, then the United States would have to ride to the rescue rather than leave its catamites hanging out to dry.
This place is continuing nicely, as the Russian leadership is demonstrating that it does not want to fight and is desperately trying to avoid escalation.
Nobody of influence and authority in europe cares about what happens to europeans. The rulers will do just fine, and they are all that matters. When Baerbock point blank told german voters that she did not care whether germans froze or starved, the War On Russia was her priority, I would suggest you take her at her word.
For that matter, france and romania openly jettisoned democracy, and germany will soon follow suit, all to cheers from brussels.
EDIT: the eu will not break up, and neither france nor germany will leave it, for the simple reason that nobody of influence and authority in france or germany (or, for that matter, brussels) wants or would countenance this.
I agree with you, but I would go further no nato, NO EU. bases out. and go into Brics, no ties
no obligations.
Go nuclear back powered have a true ecological politics no stupidities about fossil energies innovate to make all smokes be innocuous the rest is blantant a Ponsi scheme.
Mi son calls it the wooooo what people daily talk, communication, bar chats......is going up and
up, the Gibraltar news I had to read it in an Argentine newspaper, here in Spain went very discreetly. And the King in Romania, visiting Spanish troops.
At the political level Europe suffers from a lack of intelligence. Badmouthing Nordstream I and II is a clear sign of utter stupidity. At the time these pipelines were highly praised because they were correctly seen as an excellent source for the long-term supply of the European countries with comparatively cheap energy. Prior to the Ukraine crisis the Russians had offered the Europeans long-term supply contracts at fixed low prices, which would have guaranteed European prosperity for decades to come. There is no doubt that a major or even the main reason for the creation of the Ukraine war by the Americans was the destruction of the pipelines. The US blew up the pipelines and forced he Europeans to buy US gas at colossal prices from the US knowing that this would destroy European industries - in particular the German ones. At the same time the US encouraged the major European industrial companies to move their operations to the US where "energy costs and taxation" (US slogan) were far more attractive. Were the Europeans (again, in particular the Germans) too stupid or cowardly (or both) to see this? The pipeline arrangement was a brilliant idea, which is now described by the fool Merz and other intellectual low-lives as a "serious mistake", because it made Europe dependent on Russia. In other words, they think that instead of dealing with the utterly reliable and trustworthy Russians it is preferable to deal with the utterly crooked and mendacious Americans and become dependent on their supply of gas, the price of which is at least six times higher than that of Russian gas. It seems that the political European leaders are on secondment from a lunatic asylum.
The european politicians are not stupid. They are sociopaths.
Looking back 20 years from now, historians will note how quickly the EU plummeted from its heyday in 2002 with the introduction of the Euro to the shambles it is now. Many reasons will be given for this collapse of course, Russia will be mentioned, Trump of course too.
However, the collapse of Europe is down to hubris, a once great economic community chose to go all in and become a competitor against the US. Unfortunately for Europe, they never foresaw the emergence of China as an economic superpower nor the re-emergence of Russia as both an economic and military superpower.
The central bankers of Europe who control the EU should have stuck to banking and business, not geopolitics. The EU is a collection of nations, not a nation state, the belief that this was not so is what destroyed the EU.
Banking and business, as almost everything else that matters, are not distinct from geopolitics... EU countries could have chosen continuation of being subject to the US, overall it did work well for both for 75 years. The issue is they FORESAW the emergence of China and that vassals would have to suffer for it, not the USA. But the USA were not the unipolar power for nothing and used all their powers, openly and covertly, to cut their natural resource ties with Russia and economic ties with China and devastate Europe economically before it could anything about it.
The EU mis-leaders have also followed the disastrous policy of economic hostility to China aka "de-risking", which also costs the citizens of Eu countries money, in higher costs of products and higher dependence on the US, which is clearly not in the economic interest of EU citizens either.
The mis-leaders were put where they are, given the US has a complete control of its European vassals internal politics landscape, to toe the US line and against citizens of the European countries. Asian vassals are next, just in case: https://www.bjreview.com/Opinion/Voice/202506/t20250609_800404199.html
Ian, a realistic and sensible portrayal of the future of the EU. I truly hope that such will indeed happen just you have predicted. 🤝
Europe boxed itself in trying to wear a moral cape while playing a power game. Cutting off Russian gas was a signal, a statement. But signals don’t heat homes or keep factories running. The Nord Stream move now feels more like theater than strategy: banning a pipeline that’s already dead is just another way of pretending control in a game where Europe keeps folding its own cards.
Merz stepping in with a tougher line might look like a pivot, but Germany’s internal pressures are massive. You can't run an export economy on overpriced LNG while the public is watching bills spike and jobs drift away. If AfD continues rising, it's not becuase voters suddenly turned far-right; it’s because the mainstream has ignored their pain for too long.
Ukraine’s EU membership? Honestly, it's a powder keg: not just economically, but politically.
Brussels is in this weird limbo: either double down on an already unpopular war or open the door to a new member that could break the entire house of cards. Neither option is clean, and both are loaded with risk.
Bottom line? Right now, Europe’s playing a game it doesn’t seem ready to wn.
The Euro skeptics predicted the transfer of currency risk to sovereign risk when the Euro was first started. The structural tensions inherent in the EU and its irrational currency, funding, and policy arrangements were always going to be beyond the capabilities of the eurocrats to resolve. They're still wallowing in the delusion that there are no such tensions and that everything is just going to continue as it has been, forever, and that they will never personally have to pay the price of their various profligate insanities, aka policies.
The Ceausescu's once thought as they do.
"for since the fathers fell asleep, all things continue as they have from the beginning of creation"
No.
Sorry but you are very wrong this time:
* the attitude of EU towards Russia is indeed disastrous
* fossil gas is no way too expensive, it is still to cheap
* the problem is not the supply with fossil fuels, but the consumption
* the gas EU is now buying in large scale from fascistic state USA plus Caliphate Qatar is called LFG (liquefied fossil gas), not "lng"
* indeed there will be no EU in a few years unless EU is willing to grow up and itself take care of its defense (without NATO), its energy market (get rid of fossil, reduce consumption), and its political system (stop pirating everything from USA, abolish capitalism instead)
The sooner the better - France or another member. Bring the whole rotten house down and do it before they get us into a war with Russia. EU + UK + NATO is a suicide cult. Putin was open to Russia joining NATO and even asked Clinton about it. Let Russia into EU before Ukraine then? Not part of the death cult plan.
Two, centrifugal forces at work. Economic decline - the rise of fascism, both inextricably connected to the crisis of capital. The parallels with the 1930s are unavoidable except, there is no force on the left that has an alternative to offer, socialism. The catalyst? US imperialism.
If they foresaw the emergence of China as you say, they would not be in the mess they're in. Had they seen beyond their perceived new economic might back in 2002 instead of looking down on China as they did, the EU would have reaped the rewards of following China into new markets.
Working as I did back then with the elite management of Airbus, albeit in the role of a business English instructor focused on the rather complicated task of uniform report writing, I was always struck by how racist these figures I dealt with were when it came to the Chinese. Also how racist they were to one another in the great European country. So from my experience I believe you're wrong. Back when they should have embraced China they didn't, they laughed at the country. Hubris, like I said.
Looks at Meloni in Italy, from a lion in opposition to a VDL cuddly toy in power. The AfD was founded by five neoliberal economists and funded by a Swiss-German oligarch (probably partially a front for bigger oligarch money). They want to defund the German welfare state and radically deregulate the whole economy, exactly the bankers' dreams. They are using "nationalism" as simply a front to get into power. The National Rally over the years have also been very substantially tamed.
This is the game that the oligarchs play, an endless stream of "alternative" candidates and parties who in reality are in their pockets. The EU will collapse, but not before the oligarch class have done everything they can to forestall that from happening and they have quite a few games left to play. Look at Britain and its "BREXIT" that through multiple Conservative leaders and now Starmer has been turned into a purely performative farce. Also, I didn't notice any reduction in UK immigration levels, they are actually way higher than pre-BREXIT.
Stop falling for the obvious bullshit, otherwise you will just be played. Ukraine will never be allowed into the EU in any form other than an utter vassal to be widely exploited, the exact form of that agreement that the Ukrainian president refused to sign in 2014.
The plan in Ukraine ever always only was for one or more european poodles to intervene, then the United States would have to ride to the rescue rather than leave its catamites hanging out to dry.
This place is continuing nicely, as the Russian leadership is demonstrating that it does not want to fight and is desperately trying to avoid escalation.
Nobody of influence and authority in europe cares about what happens to europeans. The rulers will do just fine, and they are all that matters. When Baerbock point blank told german voters that she did not care whether germans froze or starved, the War On Russia was her priority, I would suggest you take her at her word.
For that matter, france and romania openly jettisoned democracy, and germany will soon follow suit, all to cheers from brussels.
EDIT: the eu will not break up, and neither france nor germany will leave it, for the simple reason that nobody of influence and authority in france or germany (or, for that matter, brussels) wants or would countenance this.
Europe’s misleadership class are, in Logan Roy’s memorable phrasing, “not serious people.”
I agree with you, but I would go further no nato, NO EU. bases out. and go into Brics, no ties
no obligations.
Go nuclear back powered have a true ecological politics no stupidities about fossil energies innovate to make all smokes be innocuous the rest is blantant a Ponsi scheme.
Mi son calls it the wooooo what people daily talk, communication, bar chats......is going up and
up, the Gibraltar news I had to read it in an Argentine newspaper, here in Spain went very discreetly. And the King in Romania, visiting Spanish troops.