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James Steinhaus's avatar

In some ways Russia is playing chess, the west, poker, so they don't really grasp the tactical situation. To make it worse they think they are playing against Putin and not Russia so they just have to beat him to win. They see Russia as stupid ignorant peasants ruled by an handful of oligarch that they only have to show them how evil they are for them to turn on them. Many of them look at their own people the same way, and other just can not see the Russian people being just as smart and capable as their own. In either case that leaves them making decision from a very false premise. If Putin had a heart attack tomorrow they still would not be a bit better off, but they believe they would have won and just needed to mop up. They do not grasp that they are fighting the whole of mother Russia and highly advance industrialized nation that is near the top in skills and technology. After all they are "Only Russian" after all.

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Ian Proud's avatar

Thanks. I often use the analogy of a chess game between Putin and a committee of 32 western leaders discussing each move loudly for weeks at a time...

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Jason S's avatar

You missed the bit where the West takes a pawn, spends weeks gloating about it, then Russia takes their queen leaving the West complaining about it.

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Ian Proud's avatar

Weeks gloating about it before months debating the 'true significance' of a pawn against 'a seemingly more powerful' queen. 😁

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James Steinhaus's avatar

Lord, some time when writing comment they are truly a mess. read this and found half a dozen missing words and miss spelt one, I fixed some of that.

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Ian Proud's avatar

Don't worry, I'm always noticing typos after I post stuff.

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Anonymous Academic's avatar

You are right. It's the self-destructive stage of generational hubris. It started when they deodorised their history and told the world that they are 'better', 'smarter' than those whose resources they had looted and whose ancestors they had genocided. What started as self-conscious lies designed to deflect the condemnation they deserve, turned into delusion. Because they got to a point where they actually began to believe their own lies. The result is that they have long touch with reality. And when some of this reality confronts them, they can't handle it. They can no longer cope.

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Paulo Aguiar's avatar

Yeah, this really just boils down to misreading the room, or more precisely, misreading the map. Merz stepping up with talk of lifting restrictions looks bold on paper, but in practice, it's out of sync with the actual balance of power. Russia isn’t playing a symbolic game here; it’s climbing the escalation ladder step by step, showing it has both the hardware and the will to go higher.

When a state like Russia holds escalation dominance, the smart move isn’t to posture with capabilities you don’t intend to match, or worse, can’t. If you're not ready to answer a hypersonic strike with something porportionate, then all you’ve done is raise your own exposure without changing the underlying calculus.

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Steve's avatar

‘Allowing Ukraine to use German Taurus cruise missiles.’ I wish (at least in AltMedia) that we could do away with the narrative that Ukraine has agency when it comes to use of sophisticated longer range systems that have been put into Ukraine. Ukraine doesn’t ‘use’ these systems - it’s allies do. Ukraine doesn’t have the satellite systems, other ISR, training, and technical ability to use these systems - it has the ability to push the red button. So, if Atacms, StormShadow, Scalp, and Taurus are used on Ukrainian territory, it is not Ukraine that is using them, it’s the US, UK, France, and Germany using them. The patience, and restraint showed by Russia (which has literally been under attack by these western allies), is Homeric!

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Sifu Dai's avatar

Very tidy and to the point. One word stands out for some reason: Rheinmetall ;)

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Salt Lick's avatar

I like your point that Russia always makes a two standard deviation move when provoked. This contradicts the Mass Media and Deep State claims that Russia has no redlines in order to keep escalating. No question Merz is a fool and the perfect tool to raise the specter of their latest threat of long-range missile attacks on Moscow. However, the timing is of particular import as it comes right before the next summit in Istanbul on June 2. It looks to me a like perfect setup to destroy the negotiations and the American and Russian rapprochement. It’s seems very likely Ukraine already has the missiles in question and will launch them this weekend. Russia will then be forced to decisively respond with a major escalation based on recent statements. Ending further negotiations would be the least of our worries at that point.

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Archie1954's avatar

Good synopsis of the current situation in Ukraine and NATO. Putin need only stand by and let hisEuropen opposition strangle themselves with futile announcements and then reversals.

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Ian Proud's avatar

Thank you

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Anonymous Academic's avatar

We used to associate European leaders with intelligence. I wonder what happened.

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Ian Proud's avatar

It dawned on us that we were wrong all along?

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Feral Finster's avatar

Europeans like being slaves.

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William “David" Pleasance's avatar

Western men, especially American men, are not about to permit themselves to be bullied into war with Russia, by mostly western women shrieking “do something”, all to protect the feminist revolution in Europe and throughout the west. Russia ain’t perfect - but it has soundly resisted the feminist onslaught. If Germany outlaws AfD, they will definitely lose the support of their men for any further conflict with Russia.

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Thunderbirdsong's avatar

For analysis, it seems we are entering into a paradigmatic stage to see the whole picture. That is, there are multiple levels of behind the scenes activities going on here. Germany will be supplied somewhere along the line by the Military Industrial Complex. Merz just a toy puppet. Starmer a toy puppet. Someone scripted Merz to agitate as he did. Who is all involved with the European Puppet Show? The eugenicists take partial credit, as they lust for world pop. to descend to 500 million. The MI Complex takes partial credit, as their shareholders will benefit somehow from funding to Germany to Ukraine. The NWO globalist expansionists take partial credit - like BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street - who will see "All brought to rubble so they can rebuild" as Saul Alinsky of "Rules for Radicals" urged, canceling culture and, indeed, canceling nationalism as much as they are able (with Bechtel in 1982 Lebanon as their role model). And this is all designed to keep Russia busy while Israel makes it play on Iran. Ready for a wild ride?

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Leon's avatar

Thanks for the article. One precision though: Taurus has a significantly longer range than Storm Shadow — not slightly lower but actually nearly double in many estimates.

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Michael Peck's avatar

Meanwhile the western media keeps its audience in La La Land. Reading this piece in Foreign Policy was a choke-on-your-wheaties moment “An expert’s point of view on a current event.

Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine. The military tide may have turned against Putin.”👇

http://archive.today/VRhME

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Jason S's avatar

The last Oreshnik had no warheads. Escalation would be adding conventional warheads.

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Thunderbirdsong's avatar

For analysis, it seems we are entering into a paradigmatic stage to see the whole picture. That is, there are multiple levels of behind the scenes and activities going on here. Germany will be supplied somewhere along the line by the Military Industrial Complex. Merz just a toy puppet. Starmer a toy puppet. Someone scripted Merz to agitate as he did. Who is all involved with the European Puppet Show? The eugenicists take partial credit, as they lust for world pop. to descend to 500 million. The MI Complex takes partial credit, as their shareholders will benefit somehow from funding to Germany to Ukraine. The NWO globalist expansionists take partial credit - like BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street - who will see "All brought to rubble so they can rebuild" as Saul Alinsky of "Rules for Radicals" urged, canceling culture and, indeed, canceling nationalism as much as they are able (with Bechtel in 1982 Lebanon as their role model). And this is all designed to keep Russia busy while Israel makes it play on Iran. Ready for a wild ride???

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ScuzzaMan's avatar

Joe Biden and Keir Starmer look weak because they ARE weak. Merz, auch.

Indeed, the last 80 years of Euro policy has been predicated on weakness (hiding behind big brother's nuclear shield and armoured divisions) and our current EU crop of pencil-necked NPCs were born and bred and (mis)educated in this context. They know nothing else. They understand nothing else.

That Russia is not the floundering economic and thus military basket-case of the 90s and that Big Brother Uncle Sam (when your uncle is also your brother there's something gone horrifically wrong in your family) has less and less inclination to even talk to them, let alone sacrifice blood and treasure to protect them from the consequences of their own cupidity/stupidity; these realities entirely escape their notice.

Their economic and immigration policies are weakening them further, taking them ever further from relevance in this great game between global powers; a table they have no seat at.

But Reality bites. Hard. They are about to learn a bitter lesson, and a much-needed one.

The worst part of that is they have already sacrificed hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian dead and wounded to their intransigent ignorance, and they will very likely escalate by throwing more of their own people's lives into the pot.

Nobody will mourn any of the consequences to these individuals themselves, except themselves.

("Mobbing" is illegal in Germany, but it has been EU "strategy" for decades. A school of minnows following behind the great white shark and angrily nipping at the remnants of the shark's last meal. Ironic, huh?)

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Feral Finster's avatar

Don't kid yourself. Germany is convinced that, no matter what they do, Russia will not strike back directly.

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Archie1954's avatar

Their ignorance can be cured by information, but their non curable stupidity will destroy them.

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ScuzzaMan's avatar

Merz is not Germany.

The Germans generally are very clear that Merz is not their preferred Chancellor.

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Feral Finster's avatar

It doesn't matter, since Merz is Chancellor and his orders are carried out.

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Sue's avatar

Interesting information about what the oreshnik had blown All informators were so fascinated

by the oreshnik or really ignored the reason why they used there, or maybe I didn't payed enough

attention

Your always grateful Patagonian-Spanish follower

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