A very interesting piece, Ian, and another reminder that this is NOT about personalities, for heavens sake. The Russian Federation will be there long after President Putin leaves office and it will still be next door to Ukraine and it will still refuse to accept NATO on its western border. That's why making it all about Putin works so well for the west, because by creating a demonic figure they can make it look like you are personally rewarding him if you reach a peace deal, rather than actually delivering a security framework for Ukraine and Russia that both can live with in the long-term.
I've only been in Moscow four or five times, once in '99, right after the apartment bombings. In my US passport, I had a bushy bright red beard. This caused a few moments of consternation dealing with the militia when we were stopped on the street. Fair dealing and good nature smoothed everything over. "Vot, rebyata, ya ne Chechenets." America and Russia don't have to be BFFs . . . but we can, at the very least, be amicable competitors.
I’m no Trump lover in any way, but as ex-military, I understand the far-reaching consequences of war and must applaud any effort to stop WW 3. Others will call you a Russian asset for this. It's insane. These are the same people who get their news from mainstream media talking points. None of them have studied Russia or history.
Thanks. And, to be honest, having had my run ins with Russian intelligence on the streets of Moscow, I'm happy to tell anyone making such ridiculous accusations at me to go away in short, sharp, jerky movements....
Excellent piece, thanks. Great story about the taxi driver although I know many a taxi driver in England and Ireland who'd do the same. My dealings with Russians was in a professional setting and I found them to be very polite and very intelligent. They don't suffer fools though, and many of my colleagues feared working with them but I loved working with them because I learned so much from them and they had a great sense of humour.
That is the problem with the Europeans, they fear the Russians on an intellectual level. The Americans have no fear of being intellectually weaker, they have super confidence, an American trait. Trump I believe sees the big picture and knows that the global majority is watching his every move with interest, what the Europeans think of him is of no consequence and will have no bearing on Russia US relations.
It’d be great to dig into root causes of why politicians of Ian’s format disappeared when it comes to their influence. There’s certainly more to this than a seasonal change of fashion.
Witkoff claimed that a key issue in the conflict was the Russian speaking areas wanting to be part of Russia. In fact they didn't. They wanted to remain part of Ukraine but to cease to be shelled by US funded neonazis. The fact that the conflict is a proxy war started by the US seems to have slipped Witkoff's mind. It's not a war between Russia and Ukraine. It's a war between US led NATO and Russia. If Witkoff wanted peace he would dismantle an organisation who's purpose is to encircle, contain and absorb Russia. He's not doing this. Trump is in fact expanding NATO funding, arms production and overall military power. Each day the proxy war continues, and the US is now angling to get the UK and EU directly involved, is a day that the US is choosing to continue it.
I remember the ecstasy I felt when the Berlin Wall came down, when the Soviet Union pulled its forces back . . . even when the Soviet Union dissolved. I thought, to paraphrase Gerald Ford, that our long international nightmare was over. I thought that (once more with the paraphrase, Lewis!) that as Gorbachev said, we could become a normal country again. Sadly, no. I've been waiting more than 30 years for my peace dividend. I've almost given up.
Trump trying to make room for a pivot to Iran, and the diplomats came up with a creative way to sequence some incremental steps which can implement a ceasefire in the absence of trust. Zelensky's government sabotaging even the first round of confidence building steps, so after two weeks, this round of negotiations looks as dead as the one three years ago.
I'm sure they'll try again, but maybe not in public. Trump is compelled by his political sponsors to pivot to Iran anyway, and this has already begun with Yemen which is intended by the US to be an escalation cycle drawing the US into direct exchange of massive strikes between Iran and CENTCOM bases, the US Navy, and hopefully not the vital oil infrastructure or transport that's also right there. So the US still has no choice but to divert resources away from Ukraine, and still could definitely use some assurances from Russia that they won't use that quickly upcoming conflict to take revenge for any number of deadly provocations Ukraine did with US assistance.
But whatever exchange there will be in secret and evidently won't involve Ukraine, nor the end of the conflict, nor normalization, nor rebuilding of trust.
A very interesting piece, Ian, and another reminder that this is NOT about personalities, for heavens sake. The Russian Federation will be there long after President Putin leaves office and it will still be next door to Ukraine and it will still refuse to accept NATO on its western border. That's why making it all about Putin works so well for the west, because by creating a demonic figure they can make it look like you are personally rewarding him if you reach a peace deal, rather than actually delivering a security framework for Ukraine and Russia that both can live with in the long-term.
Indeed!
I've only been in Moscow four or five times, once in '99, right after the apartment bombings. In my US passport, I had a bushy bright red beard. This caused a few moments of consternation dealing with the militia when we were stopped on the street. Fair dealing and good nature smoothed everything over. "Vot, rebyata, ya ne Chechenets." America and Russia don't have to be BFFs . . . but we can, at the very least, be amicable competitors.
Я не чеченец! Great anecdote.
I’m no Trump lover in any way, but as ex-military, I understand the far-reaching consequences of war and must applaud any effort to stop WW 3. Others will call you a Russian asset for this. It's insane. These are the same people who get their news from mainstream media talking points. None of them have studied Russia or history.
Thanks. And, to be honest, having had my run ins with Russian intelligence on the streets of Moscow, I'm happy to tell anyone making such ridiculous accusations at me to go away in short, sharp, jerky movements....
Your wish for something lasting should be everyone's wish also. The US has to deal with the Europeans to get them onside if peace is to prevail.
Indeed. Hard to imagine that getting the Europeans onside would be more difficult than getting Putin to engage...
Excellent piece, thanks. Great story about the taxi driver although I know many a taxi driver in England and Ireland who'd do the same. My dealings with Russians was in a professional setting and I found them to be very polite and very intelligent. They don't suffer fools though, and many of my colleagues feared working with them but I loved working with them because I learned so much from them and they had a great sense of humour.
That is the problem with the Europeans, they fear the Russians on an intellectual level. The Americans have no fear of being intellectually weaker, they have super confidence, an American trait. Trump I believe sees the big picture and knows that the global majority is watching his every move with interest, what the Europeans think of him is of no consequence and will have no bearing on Russia US relations.
It’d be great to dig into root causes of why politicians of Ian’s format disappeared when it comes to their influence. There’s certainly more to this than a seasonal change of fashion.
I’ve been saying this consistently since I left the Diplomatic Service 18 months ago.
Witkoff claimed that a key issue in the conflict was the Russian speaking areas wanting to be part of Russia. In fact they didn't. They wanted to remain part of Ukraine but to cease to be shelled by US funded neonazis. The fact that the conflict is a proxy war started by the US seems to have slipped Witkoff's mind. It's not a war between Russia and Ukraine. It's a war between US led NATO and Russia. If Witkoff wanted peace he would dismantle an organisation who's purpose is to encircle, contain and absorb Russia. He's not doing this. Trump is in fact expanding NATO funding, arms production and overall military power. Each day the proxy war continues, and the US is now angling to get the UK and EU directly involved, is a day that the US is choosing to continue it.
I remember the ecstasy I felt when the Berlin Wall came down, when the Soviet Union pulled its forces back . . . even when the Soviet Union dissolved. I thought, to paraphrase Gerald Ford, that our long international nightmare was over. I thought that (once more with the paraphrase, Lewis!) that as Gorbachev said, we could become a normal country again. Sadly, no. I've been waiting more than 30 years for my peace dividend. I've almost given up.
Trump trying to make room for a pivot to Iran, and the diplomats came up with a creative way to sequence some incremental steps which can implement a ceasefire in the absence of trust. Zelensky's government sabotaging even the first round of confidence building steps, so after two weeks, this round of negotiations looks as dead as the one three years ago.
I'm sure they'll try again, but maybe not in public. Trump is compelled by his political sponsors to pivot to Iran anyway, and this has already begun with Yemen which is intended by the US to be an escalation cycle drawing the US into direct exchange of massive strikes between Iran and CENTCOM bases, the US Navy, and hopefully not the vital oil infrastructure or transport that's also right there. So the US still has no choice but to divert resources away from Ukraine, and still could definitely use some assurances from Russia that they won't use that quickly upcoming conflict to take revenge for any number of deadly provocations Ukraine did with US assistance.
But whatever exchange there will be in secret and evidently won't involve Ukraine, nor the end of the conflict, nor normalization, nor rebuilding of trust.