Trump should keep pushing the Europeans to get on board with peace
My talk with Kyle Anzalone
I was pleased to talk with Kyle Anzalone, the Opinion Editor at antiwar.com on his brand new show.
We focussed principally on the ongoing stand-off between the USA and the Europeans on securing peace in Ukraine.
At its heart, the core issue remains that Europe on its own does not have the economic or military means, nor the collective political will, to support an ongoing war in Ukraine without American backing.
Chess is never won by committees, and for all the hot air and hardline stances on making no concessions to Russia, the war will only end with movement from both the Russian and Ukrainian sides.
There have been some signs of a narrowing of the gap, though. NATO - by far the biggest issues - does appear off the table, even if policymakers are trying to finesse wording on keeping the door open in case a future US administration takes a different line. I worry that that won’t convince Putin, given his previous statements, especially if Ukraine wants to rearm after any cessation of hostilities. But nonetheless helpful change in European and Ukrainian positioning.
Likewise, a softening of Russia’s stance on those parts of the four oblasts that it has not yet occupied. I think it completely unrealistic to expect Ukraine to give up territories that it has defended successfully.
Clearly lots of work is still needed, including on the economic and sanctions piece. But it feels to me that we are approaching the point at which, with the bigger issues parked, both sides need to lay down arms, and engage directly on the many detailed issues to be resolved.
Here, Trump needs to remain directly engaged, continuing to push all three parties to the conflict, Russia, Ukraine and Europe, to settle. He can’t delegate everything to Witkoff and Rubio.
Trump clearly wanted to land a ceasefire by May 9. and Putin has offered a crumb by presenting a temporary ceasefire during that period. But the US president will soon lose patience if both sides keep kicking the can down the road.
I hope you find our discussion interesting.
The USA is still also a party to this war. That's the problem with them (A) playing the mediator between other parties, and (B) pushing the other parties to cease hostilities.
Stop funding Ukraine, stop prosecuting economic warfare against Russia, and they might have some credibility.
The assurance that Jelensky was seeking in the infamous White House meeting was that we would send in our troops if Putin breached any agreement aimed at ending the war. No American president including Trump and Biden would or could give him that assurance because it’s a de facto NATO membership. We have no idea if the thug Putin will stick to any agreement he makes (and he is not to be trusted) so we can’t commit to an armed response by our troops due to his perfidy. We can only say that if it does happen we will continue to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Many people including the most powerful man in the world are advising the Ukrainians to acknowledge that they will never regain the Russian speaking territory that they have lost (or Crimea which was Russian territory since Cathrine the Great) and that their only hope for survival as a people is to cede that land to a more powerful adversary. I happen to agree with that advice and have thought it was prudent since the outbreak of the war. Many countries have given up land when they lost wars and have continued to survive and even prosper. Germany and Japan being two more recent examples and yes, they were the aggressors, unlike Ukraine.
It is a very difficult time for our nation where most now have no experience of military service and no desire that their children or grandchildren ever have that experience and yet we are forced to struggle with our relationship to an ongoing European war. I have nothing but contempt for those who urge us to support a war with no intention to actually ever have to personally suffer from the consequences of their urging. During the Vietnam war we called those individuals chicken hawks and they are once again flapping their wings and their beaks.