The USA is still also a party to this war. That's the problem with them (A) playing the mediator between other parties, and (B) pushing the other parties to cease hostilities.
Stop funding Ukraine, stop prosecuting economic warfare against Russia, and they might have some credibility.
As a diplomat Ian I’m sure you appreciate the tricky situation Trump is in. If he abandons Ukraine unilaterally he gives away most of his leverage on both parties and gives ammunition to his domestic opponents. So the carrots and sticks need to be deployed in a modulated and conditional way. Despite what we might want from an idealist position, he is following a Realist strategy.
The assurance that Jelensky was seeking in the infamous White House meeting was that we would send in our troops if Putin breached any agreement aimed at ending the war. No American president including Trump and Biden would or could give him that assurance because it’s a de facto NATO membership. We have no idea if the thug Putin will stick to any agreement he makes (and he is not to be trusted) so we can’t commit to an armed response by our troops due to his perfidy. We can only say that if it does happen we will continue to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Many people including the most powerful man in the world are advising the Ukrainians to acknowledge that they will never regain the Russian speaking territory that they have lost (or Crimea which was Russian territory since Cathrine the Great) and that their only hope for survival as a people is to cede that land to a more powerful adversary. I happen to agree with that advice and have thought it was prudent since the outbreak of the war. Many countries have given up land when they lost wars and have continued to survive and even prosper. Germany and Japan being two more recent examples and yes, they were the aggressors, unlike Ukraine.
It is a very difficult time for our nation where most now have no experience of military service and no desire that their children or grandchildren ever have that experience and yet we are forced to struggle with our relationship to an ongoing European war. I have nothing but contempt for those who urge us to support a war with no intention to actually ever have to personally suffer from the consequences of their urging. During the Vietnam war we called those individuals chicken hawks and they are once again flapping their wings and their beaks.
The best option, for everyone, including Ukraine, is just to give Russia what they want. That's the only roadmap to long term peace.
The notion that you can just say to Russia "Well, you've won the war so let's be reasonable and meet in the middle" is insane, and anyone who peddles it is insane. The Brits are so off their heads they're dictating capitulation terms in a war they're losing. They must be doing some serious psychotropics in Westminster.
Russia's terms are more than reasonable, in fact they're letting Ukraine and the West off lightly, given NATO promised not to encroach east of Germany.
If I were Putin, there's no way I'm only going for Crimea plus four. I'm going for the entire landmass east of the Dnepr. I think I saw Douglas MacGregor say that this is where the Russian military ought to be demanding it goes. It's the logical geography for this all to come to a stop.
Trump is only interested in getting a Nobel Peace Prize by doing as little actual work as possible.
Get real, Mister President.
All Nobel Peace Prizes from now until eternity are going to the odious little shite who disrespected the Pope's funeral by gatecrashing in his Action Jew outfit, demanding "veaponz".
What use is a private negotiation between Donald Trump and Russia? He'll never get anything through the US political architecture. It's like some daft TV gameshow where the contestants try to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. It's farcical. Show's over. You're all fired, for being shite.
I've only seen two people with a handle on where this is going. Mearsheimer. MacGregor.
Mearsheimer said now is not the time to negotiate. No amount of "I'll settle it in a day" or "I'll settle it in 90 days" or "I'll just give it two more weeks and that's definitely my final deadline until I pussy out and extend it by yet another two weeks" will magic up the right time to negotiate. Mearsheimer said the right time to negotiate will manifest itself, and when it does, then that is the time to do it. And that's right. And that's not now. Ukraine needs to be on its knees.
The Neocons/Brits/Europeans will try to keep Ukraine afloat in the hope that Trump gets smashed in the midterms and they can restart the weapons flows. That's a year and a half away and then nothing will happen until 2027. Can Ukraine survive till then? I have no idea, but I do know that it'll be better for them if they DON'T. Peace can only come from a Russian victory.
Ian: I think it completely unrealistic to expect Ukraine to give up territories that it has defended successfully. Really? Well I suppose then, they should go on fighting until they lose them on the battlefield, along with another 100,000 KIA, and possibly another couple of oblasts as well. There is no divide between Europe and the US. Neither want peace. The US just wants to stop Russia winning, freeze the war, pump up Ukraine with more supplies, and re-start it at a more opportune moment. I honestly don’t think Russia will agree a pointless ceasefire (from their position), just be cause Ukraine has run out of weapons and ammo, and press-ganged young men to throw into the woodchipper. Just sayin’.
Ian: I think you misread my response - sorry if I was unclear. You suggested that it was unrealistic to expect Ukraine to give up the portions of the 4 oblasts that it still retains. My point was, that it’s unrealistic for Ukraine to expect to keep them, and that they should absolutely hand them over. If not, the war will continue and they will lose more territory than the 4. However, i have no expectations that the Zelensky regime will act rationally (if it tried to, they would all be killed by Azov), and I expect Ukraine to continue drinking the kool-aid until the very end.
Ian - the problem is Trump cannot trust Europe, given they attempted to rig the 2024 Election for Kamala. They succeeded in 2020 for Biden. Italy's Leonardo used satellites to interfere with the voting machines. The boss of Leonardo was arrested and attested to this fact. Germany's CIA HQ in Frankfurt was the HQ of the operation. Spain's Scytl company was also deployed. Britain's MI6 was doubtless involved.
About 3 years ago several hundred of Italy's most notorious crime families were rounded up, tried and imprisoned for 2200 years. Doubtless they are a part of the Deep State enforcement arm in Italy.
So, Europe has a financial interest in continuing this war at all costs.
I believe this is covertly an oil war as usual, not "rare earths" The final settlement of this war will be made by the 3 main oil powers of the world - Saudi, US and Russia. The EU can be grateful they have a chance of turning up for talks, given their open hostility to Trump over the past decade.
The USA is still also a party to this war. That's the problem with them (A) playing the mediator between other parties, and (B) pushing the other parties to cease hostilities.
Stop funding Ukraine, stop prosecuting economic warfare against Russia, and they might have some credibility.
I agree.
As a diplomat Ian I’m sure you appreciate the tricky situation Trump is in. If he abandons Ukraine unilaterally he gives away most of his leverage on both parties and gives ammunition to his domestic opponents. So the carrots and sticks need to be deployed in a modulated and conditional way. Despite what we might want from an idealist position, he is following a Realist strategy.
The assurance that Jelensky was seeking in the infamous White House meeting was that we would send in our troops if Putin breached any agreement aimed at ending the war. No American president including Trump and Biden would or could give him that assurance because it’s a de facto NATO membership. We have no idea if the thug Putin will stick to any agreement he makes (and he is not to be trusted) so we can’t commit to an armed response by our troops due to his perfidy. We can only say that if it does happen we will continue to supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
Many people including the most powerful man in the world are advising the Ukrainians to acknowledge that they will never regain the Russian speaking territory that they have lost (or Crimea which was Russian territory since Cathrine the Great) and that their only hope for survival as a people is to cede that land to a more powerful adversary. I happen to agree with that advice and have thought it was prudent since the outbreak of the war. Many countries have given up land when they lost wars and have continued to survive and even prosper. Germany and Japan being two more recent examples and yes, they were the aggressors, unlike Ukraine.
It is a very difficult time for our nation where most now have no experience of military service and no desire that their children or grandchildren ever have that experience and yet we are forced to struggle with our relationship to an ongoing European war. I have nothing but contempt for those who urge us to support a war with no intention to actually ever have to personally suffer from the consequences of their urging. During the Vietnam war we called those individuals chicken hawks and they are once again flapping their wings and their beaks.
Chicken hawks - a suitable name indeed.
While he’s at it Trump can insist Europeans restore freedom of speech and freedom of elections.
The best option, for everyone, including Ukraine, is just to give Russia what they want. That's the only roadmap to long term peace.
The notion that you can just say to Russia "Well, you've won the war so let's be reasonable and meet in the middle" is insane, and anyone who peddles it is insane. The Brits are so off their heads they're dictating capitulation terms in a war they're losing. They must be doing some serious psychotropics in Westminster.
Russia's terms are more than reasonable, in fact they're letting Ukraine and the West off lightly, given NATO promised not to encroach east of Germany.
If I were Putin, there's no way I'm only going for Crimea plus four. I'm going for the entire landmass east of the Dnepr. I think I saw Douglas MacGregor say that this is where the Russian military ought to be demanding it goes. It's the logical geography for this all to come to a stop.
Trump is only interested in getting a Nobel Peace Prize by doing as little actual work as possible.
Get real, Mister President.
All Nobel Peace Prizes from now until eternity are going to the odious little shite who disrespected the Pope's funeral by gatecrashing in his Action Jew outfit, demanding "veaponz".
What use is a private negotiation between Donald Trump and Russia? He'll never get anything through the US political architecture. It's like some daft TV gameshow where the contestants try to negotiate a peace deal with Russia. It's farcical. Show's over. You're all fired, for being shite.
I've only seen two people with a handle on where this is going. Mearsheimer. MacGregor.
Mearsheimer said now is not the time to negotiate. No amount of "I'll settle it in a day" or "I'll settle it in 90 days" or "I'll just give it two more weeks and that's definitely my final deadline until I pussy out and extend it by yet another two weeks" will magic up the right time to negotiate. Mearsheimer said the right time to negotiate will manifest itself, and when it does, then that is the time to do it. And that's right. And that's not now. Ukraine needs to be on its knees.
The Neocons/Brits/Europeans will try to keep Ukraine afloat in the hope that Trump gets smashed in the midterms and they can restart the weapons flows. That's a year and a half away and then nothing will happen until 2027. Can Ukraine survive till then? I have no idea, but I do know that it'll be better for them if they DON'T. Peace can only come from a Russian victory.
Ian: I think it completely unrealistic to expect Ukraine to give up territories that it has defended successfully. Really? Well I suppose then, they should go on fighting until they lose them on the battlefield, along with another 100,000 KIA, and possibly another couple of oblasts as well. There is no divide between Europe and the US. Neither want peace. The US just wants to stop Russia winning, freeze the war, pump up Ukraine with more supplies, and re-start it at a more opportune moment. I honestly don’t think Russia will agree a pointless ceasefire (from their position), just be cause Ukraine has run out of weapons and ammo, and press-ganged young men to throw into the woodchipper. Just sayin’.
I didn't suggest Ukraine should give up territories it defended.
Ian: I think you misread my response - sorry if I was unclear. You suggested that it was unrealistic to expect Ukraine to give up the portions of the 4 oblasts that it still retains. My point was, that it’s unrealistic for Ukraine to expect to keep them, and that they should absolutely hand them over. If not, the war will continue and they will lose more territory than the 4. However, i have no expectations that the Zelensky regime will act rationally (if it tried to, they would all be killed by Azov), and I expect Ukraine to continue drinking the kool-aid until the very end.
I agree with other commenters that
- the US is a party to the conflict and Trump is in danger of being trapped inside this fiction of being a mediator
- Europe is a refugium of his DNC, globalist, USAID-astroturfed opposition. In effect Europe is now the power base of the DNC/globalists.
- The serially proven untrustworthiness of the West may prove insurmountable
Ian - the problem is Trump cannot trust Europe, given they attempted to rig the 2024 Election for Kamala. They succeeded in 2020 for Biden. Italy's Leonardo used satellites to interfere with the voting machines. The boss of Leonardo was arrested and attested to this fact. Germany's CIA HQ in Frankfurt was the HQ of the operation. Spain's Scytl company was also deployed. Britain's MI6 was doubtless involved.
About 3 years ago several hundred of Italy's most notorious crime families were rounded up, tried and imprisoned for 2200 years. Doubtless they are a part of the Deep State enforcement arm in Italy.
So, Europe has a financial interest in continuing this war at all costs.
I believe this is covertly an oil war as usual, not "rare earths" The final settlement of this war will be made by the 3 main oil powers of the world - Saudi, US and Russia. The EU can be grateful they have a chance of turning up for talks, given their open hostility to Trump over the past decade.