Like a poor gambler, the solution to a losing streak is to keep spending in the hope that things will change. I don't understand the human nature behind this funding. Are Western leaders worried about their chapter in history books? Is it a fear of not getting another job? Or is it worse - they are completely indifferent to the state of the country they lead?
This is a very well informed and perceptive analysis.
Of course, in addition to the posited 40 billion Euros p.a. in direct financial support for Ukraine, there is the small matter of how to pay for the proposed 800 billion Euro increase in debt-funded military expenditure intended to protect Europe from the non-existent danger of a Russian invasion.
In reality the principle danger to Europe following the military defeat of Ukraine will result from the subsequent collapse of its economy and currency, which will surely itself be followed by a mass exodus of its people, including large elements of its armed forces, all seeking refuge and protection, mostly in Germany (where the social benefits are very generous).
Hundreds of thousands of war traumatised Ukrainian soldiers, many of them armed, filled with hatred and resentment against both their Russian enemies and their European hosts; what a nightmare!
I can't help but agree with the fear that Eurocrats are slow peddling on ending the war as it will bring forward a bigger threat to Europe itself - Ukrainian membership. Poland will lose billions in subsidies each year; little wonder Radek Sikorski is one of the most vociferous hawks.
Yes I agree, although it’s worth noting that Türkiye has been waiting to join the EU for nearly 40 years, and its application has made virtually no progress at all, and probably never will.
As the Russians watch the EU gradually militarising itself and transforming into a ‘NATO lite’ I very much doubt that they will agree to Ukrainian membership, which position would ironically align quite well with the wishes of most EU member states.
"there is the small matter of how to pay for the proposed 800 billion Euro increase in debt-funded military expenditure intended to protect Europe from the non-existent danger of a full scale Russian invasion."
That's easy.
It's on the never-never.
Our grandchildren will have to pay it off.
You can add it to the list of things our grandchildren will hate us for.
Ian: I wonder if you can help? We constantly hear about why Zelensky has no wish to end the war, because it will mean the end of his presidency…… Can you, or anyone else on this thread explain why Zelensky would want to remain President? He is an actor, not a politician, he is not an ideologue; he is just an ordinary bloke (ignoring the embezzled billions). He is riding a tiger - why doesn’t he just get off? The longer he stays, the more likely he is to end up hanging from a lamppost in Kiev (perhaps with his wife hanging next to him). Why doesn’t he feign illness, or simply announce that elections will be held, and he won’t be contesting them? I can easily understand why another current leader in west Asia is keeping a war going to stay in office, but in the case of Ukraine, I am genuinely puzzled. 🤔
He’s terrified of the Azov brigades. They’ve already accused him of using them deliberately in high casualty counterattacks that served little purpose.
They believe, probably correctly, that the Zelensky crew and the EU/US advisors would prefer if as many of the nationalists die as possible during the war to reduce their post-war political block.
The Zelensky/Euro faction doesn’t understand that the Azov boys will just start killing the ponces if they have no political rewards when the war ends.
When a swarm of 70+ fiber optic drones blows up a Ukrainian presidential motorcade a few years from now, it won’t be a secret who did it.
As you will have seen Ian, the latest opinion polls in the UK show Reform at 30% with a 7% lead over Labour, even though it would be extremely unlikely for Reform to win power (going from 5 seats to 326 is a stretch!) they could easily knock over 100 Labour MPs, especially in 'Blue Labour' areas - and those Labour MPs know it. Starmer will come under massive internal pressure to stop funding the Ukraine war and start focusing on key UK domestic issues, but I am not sure he will do that, he seems to love the big stage, despite having no real power.
"Progress, as always, is slow and grinding as it has been since the start of 2024"
It's definitely speeding up. It's a couple of villages a day now, not one a week as it has been for long periods of the war.
100 square km a week times 50 weeks = erm, 5000 square km in a year. That sounds a lot but it's only about 1% of the whole of what the West would consider as the borders of 'Ukraine'.
Russia currently has about three quarters of the DPR oblast. The remaining quarter is around 1000 square km.
Difficult to gauge the proportion of current Russian advances in DPR out of advances across the entirety of the front lines, but surely the DPR accounts for at least 50%, which would be 2500 square km a year, which would put Russia in control of the entirety of the DPR by November.
I do think the pace of advance will slow though as Russia has to take a series of large towns along the line Konstantinovka (which is clearly doomed), Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk.
I don't see Russia in Slavyansk before Santa. But I do see them in Slavyansk sometime in 2026.
With the whole DPR in the bag, more of Zapo, some buffer zone territory in the north, I'd expect the Russians to open back channels to the Americans to pressure the Ewok to accept terms.
–––
"But on the current track, Putin gets the added benefit of watching the European Union project slowly implode, without the need to go all in on Ukraine"
That statement works equally well if you remove 'Putin' and insert 'Trump'.
I don't see Trump 'walking away', however that is defined. Trump seems to like the threat of doing something more than actually doing it. It's all about the power trip.
I also think he has his eye on a zero effort Nobel Peace Prize. Get my mate Steve to fly round the world speaking to Pootn. Get the Ewok to capitulate to Russia. Just gimme my prize already!
I read earlier today that John Bolton is of the same opinion (and that Trump only wants one because Obama got one). Me having the same opinion as John Bolton is a first. Worrying!
–––
Excellent hour with Colonel Jacques Baud on Glenn Diesen's channel today. Worth a watch...
I enjoyed Glenn Diesen’s interview with Jacques Baud. It’s amusing, though, that despite being a very educated man, Diesen can’t get it into his head that Baud is from la Suisse Romande and that his name should be pronounced in the Francophone manner when introducing him. (Of course, Baud speaks excellent German too.)
Political support for continued financing will crumble once Ursula gets her grubbly hands on our savings and turns them to ¨productive use¨. Is this part of why CBDC is coming soon? Another EU mandate on the way. Covid was just a test run. And with censorship in place you can achieve policy goals with much less resistance. Game on!
LudwigF. Perhaps the tiger analogy is not he best……. A supplementary question then? Would the Ukraine or western security and intelligence forces bother to kill him, once he had stepped down? Actually, while writing that, I can think of 2 reasons. 😂 1: Blame his death on Putin. 2: Shut him up 4 good - he knows where all the bodies are buried, and he is an Olympian gobshite.
"But Russia has never fully mobilized the country for the fight in Ukraine, for various domestic political reasons. Putin also wants to maintain relations with developing country partners and a more devastating military offensive against Ukraine would make that harder."
I'm certainly not an expert, but it appears to me that a slow, grinding pace of advance both minimizes Russia's own casualties and allows it to continue pursuit of a defined objective - the eradication of the Ukrainian land forces. Additionally, other sources have pointed out that a significant percentage of new equipment and recruiting is being channelled to new national reserves, because Moscow believes there is a strong possibility it will have to fight NATO in a conventional war in Europe.
Британский совет отныне нежелательный гость на российской земле
Сегодня Генеральная прокуратура Российской Федерации приняла решение о признании деятельности Британского совета нежелательной на территории нашей страны. Это решение является логичным и необходимым ответом на враждебные действия Великобритании, направленные против России.
Как справедливо заявили представители ФСБ, Британский совет является враждебной организацией, который активно участвует в операциях британских спецслужб, направленных на подрыв суверенитета и безопасности Российской Федерации, а таких других суверенных государств.
В России осудили подобные действия и считают их недопустимыми. Россия не потерпит вмешательства во внутренние дела и не позволит использовать свою территорию в качестве плацдарма для антироссийской деятельности.
"Великобритания является основным источником большинства мировых кризисов, провокатором и поджигателем войн",
- заявили в ведомстве.
В ФСБ РФ призвали наших партнёров из дружественных стран принять меры по купированию работы Британского совета на своей территории. В интересах международной безопасности необходимо пресечь деятельность этой организации, которая представляет собой серьезную угрозу стабильности и мировому порядку.
From Edward Basurin’s Telegram channel. Summarises the hostile actions that the British council has towards the Russian Federation.
Like a poor gambler, the solution to a losing streak is to keep spending in the hope that things will change. I don't understand the human nature behind this funding. Are Western leaders worried about their chapter in history books? Is it a fear of not getting another job? Or is it worse - they are completely indifferent to the state of the country they lead?
I worry it may be a mix of all three.
Thank you.
This is a very well informed and perceptive analysis.
Of course, in addition to the posited 40 billion Euros p.a. in direct financial support for Ukraine, there is the small matter of how to pay for the proposed 800 billion Euro increase in debt-funded military expenditure intended to protect Europe from the non-existent danger of a Russian invasion.
In reality the principle danger to Europe following the military defeat of Ukraine will result from the subsequent collapse of its economy and currency, which will surely itself be followed by a mass exodus of its people, including large elements of its armed forces, all seeking refuge and protection, mostly in Germany (where the social benefits are very generous).
Hundreds of thousands of war traumatised Ukrainian soldiers, many of them armed, filled with hatred and resentment against both their Russian enemies and their European hosts; what a nightmare!
I can't help but agree with the fear that Eurocrats are slow peddling on ending the war as it will bring forward a bigger threat to Europe itself - Ukrainian membership. Poland will lose billions in subsidies each year; little wonder Radek Sikorski is one of the most vociferous hawks.
Yes I agree, although it’s worth noting that Türkiye has been waiting to join the EU for nearly 40 years, and its application has made virtually no progress at all, and probably never will.
As the Russians watch the EU gradually militarising itself and transforming into a ‘NATO lite’ I very much doubt that they will agree to Ukrainian membership, which position would ironically align quite well with the wishes of most EU member states.
"there is the small matter of how to pay for the proposed 800 billion Euro increase in debt-funded military expenditure intended to protect Europe from the non-existent danger of a full scale Russian invasion."
That's easy.
It's on the never-never.
Our grandchildren will have to pay it off.
You can add it to the list of things our grandchildren will hate us for.
Ian: I wonder if you can help? We constantly hear about why Zelensky has no wish to end the war, because it will mean the end of his presidency…… Can you, or anyone else on this thread explain why Zelensky would want to remain President? He is an actor, not a politician, he is not an ideologue; he is just an ordinary bloke (ignoring the embezzled billions). He is riding a tiger - why doesn’t he just get off? The longer he stays, the more likely he is to end up hanging from a lamppost in Kiev (perhaps with his wife hanging next to him). Why doesn’t he feign illness, or simply announce that elections will be held, and he won’t be contesting them? I can easily understand why another current leader in west Asia is keeping a war going to stay in office, but in the case of Ukraine, I am genuinely puzzled. 🤔
I'm afraid you'd need to ask him. I am also puzzled.
"The longer he stays, the more likely he is to end up hanging from a lamppost in Kiev"
Other way round, I think.
The sooner he goes.
He will be a sitting duck.
Ukraine has committed war crimes, acts of terrorism, assassinations, embezzlement of Western taxpayer's money on an industrial scale.
There's a price to pay for all that.
He’s terrified of the Azov brigades. They’ve already accused him of using them deliberately in high casualty counterattacks that served little purpose.
They believe, probably correctly, that the Zelensky crew and the EU/US advisors would prefer if as many of the nationalists die as possible during the war to reduce their post-war political block.
The Zelensky/Euro faction doesn’t understand that the Azov boys will just start killing the ponces if they have no political rewards when the war ends.
When a swarm of 70+ fiber optic drones blows up a Ukrainian presidential motorcade a few years from now, it won’t be a secret who did it.
And that's just the price to be paid to people outside Ukraine.
He's got at one current estimate three quarters of a million of his countrymen killed.
Sometime, somewhere in Ukraine, there's a vengeful Ukrainian on a grassy knoll...
When you’re riding a tiger you can’t get off, because the tiger will eat you.
As you will have seen Ian, the latest opinion polls in the UK show Reform at 30% with a 7% lead over Labour, even though it would be extremely unlikely for Reform to win power (going from 5 seats to 326 is a stretch!) they could easily knock over 100 Labour MPs, especially in 'Blue Labour' areas - and those Labour MPs know it. Starmer will come under massive internal pressure to stop funding the Ukraine war and start focusing on key UK domestic issues, but I am not sure he will do that, he seems to love the big stage, despite having no real power.
"Progress, as always, is slow and grinding as it has been since the start of 2024"
It's definitely speeding up. It's a couple of villages a day now, not one a week as it has been for long periods of the war.
100 square km a week times 50 weeks = erm, 5000 square km in a year. That sounds a lot but it's only about 1% of the whole of what the West would consider as the borders of 'Ukraine'.
Russia currently has about three quarters of the DPR oblast. The remaining quarter is around 1000 square km.
Difficult to gauge the proportion of current Russian advances in DPR out of advances across the entirety of the front lines, but surely the DPR accounts for at least 50%, which would be 2500 square km a year, which would put Russia in control of the entirety of the DPR by November.
I do think the pace of advance will slow though as Russia has to take a series of large towns along the line Konstantinovka (which is clearly doomed), Druzhkovka, Kramatorsk, Slavyansk.
I don't see Russia in Slavyansk before Santa. But I do see them in Slavyansk sometime in 2026.
With the whole DPR in the bag, more of Zapo, some buffer zone territory in the north, I'd expect the Russians to open back channels to the Americans to pressure the Ewok to accept terms.
–––
"But on the current track, Putin gets the added benefit of watching the European Union project slowly implode, without the need to go all in on Ukraine"
That statement works equally well if you remove 'Putin' and insert 'Trump'.
I don't see Trump 'walking away', however that is defined. Trump seems to like the threat of doing something more than actually doing it. It's all about the power trip.
I also think he has his eye on a zero effort Nobel Peace Prize. Get my mate Steve to fly round the world speaking to Pootn. Get the Ewok to capitulate to Russia. Just gimme my prize already!
I read earlier today that John Bolton is of the same opinion (and that Trump only wants one because Obama got one). Me having the same opinion as John Bolton is a first. Worrying!
–––
Excellent hour with Colonel Jacques Baud on Glenn Diesen's channel today. Worth a watch...
I enjoyed Glenn Diesen’s interview with Jacques Baud. It’s amusing, though, that despite being a very educated man, Diesen can’t get it into his head that Baud is from la Suisse Romande and that his name should be pronounced in the Francophone manner when introducing him. (Of course, Baud speaks excellent German too.)
Political support for continued financing will crumble once Ursula gets her grubbly hands on our savings and turns them to ¨productive use¨. Is this part of why CBDC is coming soon? Another EU mandate on the way. Covid was just a test run. And with censorship in place you can achieve policy goals with much less resistance. Game on!
LudwigF. Perhaps the tiger analogy is not he best……. A supplementary question then? Would the Ukraine or western security and intelligence forces bother to kill him, once he had stepped down? Actually, while writing that, I can think of 2 reasons. 😂 1: Blame his death on Putin. 2: Shut him up 4 good - he knows where all the bodies are buried, and he is an Olympian gobshite.
"But Russia has never fully mobilized the country for the fight in Ukraine, for various domestic political reasons. Putin also wants to maintain relations with developing country partners and a more devastating military offensive against Ukraine would make that harder."
I'm certainly not an expert, but it appears to me that a slow, grinding pace of advance both minimizes Russia's own casualties and allows it to continue pursuit of a defined objective - the eradication of the Ukrainian land forces. Additionally, other sources have pointed out that a significant percentage of new equipment and recruiting is being channelled to new national reserves, because Moscow believes there is a strong possibility it will have to fight NATO in a conventional war in Europe.
Британский совет отныне нежелательный гость на российской земле
Сегодня Генеральная прокуратура Российской Федерации приняла решение о признании деятельности Британского совета нежелательной на территории нашей страны. Это решение является логичным и необходимым ответом на враждебные действия Великобритании, направленные против России.
Как справедливо заявили представители ФСБ, Британский совет является враждебной организацией, который активно участвует в операциях британских спецслужб, направленных на подрыв суверенитета и безопасности Российской Федерации, а таких других суверенных государств.
В России осудили подобные действия и считают их недопустимыми. Россия не потерпит вмешательства во внутренние дела и не позволит использовать свою территорию в качестве плацдарма для антироссийской деятельности.
"Великобритания является основным источником большинства мировых кризисов, провокатором и поджигателем войн",
- заявили в ведомстве.
В ФСБ РФ призвали наших партнёров из дружественных стран принять меры по купированию работы Британского совета на своей территории. В интересах международной безопасности необходимо пресечь деятельность этой организации, которая представляет собой серьезную угрозу стабильности и мировому порядку.
From Edward Basurin’s Telegram channel. Summarises the hostile actions that the British council has towards the Russian Federation.
They’re just fueling Zelensky’s coke habit.
They don't understand Russians, Did they see the gesture of Vladimir Medinsky to the Ukrainians
was the worst hand gesture in Russian to the Ukrainian group, and Umerov assented.
Bad tactical idea. the answer will be strategical, no bait, for Putin. something like F**** you but
in real form.
War Rules will change dramatically next week.
"Time to bring the gravy train to a halt"
Russia just lost half their air force in a drone op.
I think "time to bring Ukraine to a halt" will be being discussed in Moscow...
money doesn’t drive tank, fly drones or attack the enemy. That takes trained men and they do not have enough.